[2025] EWHC 2219 (Fam)

[51] It can be seen, therefore, that the court has to consider both the likelihood of the risk arising and the nature or gravity of that risk if it does occur. As I noted in Re S (A Child) (Abduction: Article 13(b): Mental Health) [2023] 2 FLR 439, at [90]:

“There is a connection between the nature of the risk and the assessment of whether it is a grave risk within the scope of Art 13(b). The more serious or significant the character of the risk, the lower the level of the risk which 'might properly be qualified as “grave”', and vice-versa.”

The effect of this approach, as noted by Lewis LJ during the hearing, is that the court must assess the nature of the risk, the likelihood of the risk materialising and the consequences of the risk materialising for the child. In a case such as the present, for the purposes of determining whether the circumstances set out in Article 13(b) have been established, this will involve consideration of the nature or extent of any potential deterioration or relapse in the mother's mental health and the nature or extent of any potential impact on A.