CAUSATION AND QUANTUM
CAUSATION AND QUANTUM
Preliminary comments
It follows from my conclusions on liability that it is necessary to determine the loss suffered by Cabo as a result of MGA’s exclusionary campaign, in breach of the Chapter II prohibition and Article 102 TFEU, and MGA’s unjustified threats of patent infringement proceedings.
As indicated at the start of this judgment, the parties’ positions on causation and quantum were poles apart. Cabo contended that, but for MGA’s conduct, Worldeez would have been a successful and profitable product, both in the UK and internationally, and that Cabo would have gone on to generate additional revenue from licensing deals. Cabo’s initial claim for lost UK and international profits, and lost licensing revenues, was for over £170m. That had reduced to between £51–65m by the end of the trial. Cabo relied on quantum modelling by Mr Colley, together with the factual and toy expert evidence.
MGA submitted that Cabo could not show that Worldeez would have been profitable (whether in the UK or internationally) or would have generated any licensing revenues in the absence of MGA’s conduct, and that the claim for damages should therefore fail. MGA put its submissions on essentially two bases. The first was that Cabo could not show on the balance of probabilities that it would have traded profitably, on the basis of the factual and toy expert evidence as to the quality of the product, extent of initial retailer support, the dynamics of the toy market and the sales volumes, revenue volumes and capital required to break even during 2017. Secondly, MGA relied on Mr Parker’s quantum models to submit that Cabo would have enjoyed very limited profitability on even generous assumptions as to its success, and would have suffered losses on more realistic assumptions. To the extent necessary, MGA relied on Mr Davies’ approach to valuation issues.
The parties approached the issues of causation and quantum in very different ways, both as a matter of legal principle and as a matter of evidence. It is therefore necessary to start by considering a number of issues of legal principle, before addressing the issues between the parties on the evidence.
- Heading
- INTRODUCTION
- THE EVIDENCE OF FACT
- MGA’s witnesses of fact
- Mr Larian’s breaches of purdah
- THE EXPERT EVIDENCE
- The economic and valuation experts: preliminary comments
- Assessment of the economic and valuation evidence
- The Decision Tree Model (DTM)
- ISSUES
- FACTUAL BACKGROUND
- The UK toy industry
- Table 1: NPD dolls classifications
- MGA and LOL Surprise
- Section 14
- The founding of Cabo and development of Worldeez
- Section 16
- The initial marketing of Worldeez
- Discussions with the launch retailers
- The Entertainer
- Toys R Us
- Smyths
- Other retailers
- MGA’s intervention
- Contacts with Cabo and Singleton
- The Entertainer
- Toys R Us
- Smyths
- B&M and other retailers
- AB Gee
- Worldeez repackaging and relaunch
- Launch of Worldeez globe in B&M
- Decline in B&M sales after August 2017
- Sales to other retailers
- Licensing and international distribution
- Nickelodeon advertising
- Demise of Cabo
- PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND
- ABUSE OF DOMINANCE CLAIM
- The relevant market definition
- The parties’ submissions
- Mr Colley’s approach
- Mr Parker’s approach
- Section 44
- Conclusions on market definition
- Whether MGA was dominant on the relevant market
- The parties’ submissions
- Table 2: 2017 market shares for Colley and Parker markets (%)
- Table 3: Parker market share estimates for 2018–19 (%)
- Table 4: 2017 market shares for extended Colley market (%)
- Market shares
- Figure 1: Colley diagram of 2017 MGA and competitor market shares
- Competition from products outside the relevant market
- Barriers to entry and expansion
- Countervailing buyer power
- MGA’s conduct
- Conclusions on dominance
- Whether MGA’s conduct amounted to an abuse
- The parties’ submissions
- The overall exclusionary campaign
- MGA’s “response to commercial attack” argument
- MGA’s passing off defence
- Section 63
- Conclusion on abuse of dominance
- UNLAWFUL AGREEMENTS CLAIM
- Agreements with the toy traders
- Discussion and conclusions
- Anticompetitive object or effect
- Discussion and conclusions
- Exemption under the VBER
- Scope of the VBER
- Market share threshold
- Excluded restrictions
- Conclusion on the VBER
- Exemption under s. 9 / Article 101(3)
- Conclusion on the unlawful agreements claim
- PATENT THREATS CLAIM
- Threats of patent infringement proceedings
- The parties’ submissions
- Discussion
- “Person aggrieved”
- Conclusion on the patent threats claim
- CAUSATION AND QUANTUM
- Legal principles
- Quantification of the loss
- The approach to claims for lost profits
- Conclusions on the overarching approach
- Causative effect of MGA’s conduct
- Actionable damage and causation: Cabo’s heads of loss
- Whether Cabo would have traded profitably in the counterfactual case
- Product quality
- Section 92
- Marketing campaign
- Retailer support
- Business plan/financial projections
- Inventory management
- Working capital
- Toy expert evidence on commercial success
- Breakeven analysis
- Table 5: Volumes and working capital required to break even in 2017
- International sales
- Conclusions on whether Cabo would have traded profitably
- The parties’ quantum models
- Mr Colley’s quantum models
- Table 6: Cabo calculations of losses (£m)
- Assessment of Mr Colley’s models
- Mr Parker’s quantum models
- Table 7: MGA calculations of losses (£)
- Assessment of Mr Parker’s significant success model
- Table 8: Loss calculation for significant success model, comparing MGA and Cabo cost stacks (£)
- Assessment of Mr Parker’s moderate success model
- Figure 2: Parker moderate success model: average monthly revenue (£)
- Conclusions on the quantum models
- DECLARATORY RELIEF
- Conclusions
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