Table 5: Volumes and working capital required to break even in 2017
Table 5: Volumes and working capital required to break even in 2017
Cost stack/ | Breakeven volumes (all Worldeez) | Globe breakeven volumes | Working capital required (£) |
MGA cost stack/£1.20 | 2,678,431 | 2,299,050 | 3,910,679 |
MGA cost stack/£1.35 | 1,313,330 | 1,127,306 | 2,076,039 |
MGA cost stack/£1.50 | 869,948 | 746,726 | 1,480,152 |
Cabo cost stack/£1.20 | 917,026 | 787,136 | 1,273,711 |
Cabo cost stack/£1.35 | 686,227 | 589,027 | 1,035,955 |
Cabo cost stack/£1.52 | 554,009 | 475,427 | 938,162 |
When considering the competing cost stacks, it should be noted that by the end of the trial there remained significant disputes between the parties on numerous points which led to the very different breakeven figures set out above. The disputed issues included not only the wholesale prices and cost of goods, which I have addressed above, but also a dispute as to the payments that would have been due to Nickelodeon had a TV advertising contract been agreed on the basis discussed by Cabo and Nickelodeon. The latter point had a particularly significant effect on the cost figures, because MGA’s contention was that Cabo would have agreed a profit-share contract which provided for Nickelodeon to receive 6.5% of retail revenue less Cabo’s costs of manufacture and distribution, whereas Cabo contended that the agreement would have been for Nickelodeon to receive 6.5% of wholesale revenue less costs. In addition, there were various other disputes on smaller points such as whether Singleton was entitled to a management charge, and the costs of product test, samples and depreciation. It was not, however, possible to assess the impact of any individual specific disputed cost items on the breakeven analysis, because MGA’s calculations were simply provided on the basis of a binary choice between its cost stack and Cabo’s cost stack.
Fortunately, however, that does not matter, because the figures set out above show that even on assumptions favourable to Cabo, Worldeez would have had to be a highly successful product in order to break even during 2017. The evidence does not, however, indicate that Worldeez could have achieved success of that magnitude. In particular:
On Cabo’s cost stack and an average wholesale price for the globe of £1.52 (which I consider to be too high for the reasons set out at §§551–555 above), Cabo would have needed to sell over 475,000 globes during 2017. That translates to an average of over 15,000 globes a week throughout June to December 2017. As described above, even in the immediate aftermath of a hugely successful marketing video with Tiana, resulting in peak sales at B&M during the August summer holiday period, the best that Cabo achieved was sales of around 4,500 a week at B&M. There is no evidence supporting the suggestion that even if Cabo had been on sale in the three main specialist toy retailers, it could have achieved (on average) over treble those sales for the entirety of June to December 2017.
At a more realistic average wholesale price of £1.35 (see §555 above), and again using Cabo’s cost stack, Cabo would have had to sell over 589,000 globes in 2017, or on average over 19,000 a week, which would have been an even more unattainable figure.
On any of the assumptions in the table above, Cabo would have needed very considerable capital (i.e. cashflow) funding from Singleton just to break even during 2017. Notwithstanding Mr Sivner’s apparent enthusiasm for Worldeez, and the family ties between Mr Sivner and Mr Michaelson, it is very improbable (particularly considering the evidence set out at §§563–568 above) that Singleton would have committed sums of a million pounds or more just to break even in 2017, let alone the larger capital sums that would have been required to tip the business into profitability.
- Heading
- INTRODUCTION
- THE EVIDENCE OF FACT
- MGA’s witnesses of fact
- Mr Larian’s breaches of purdah
- THE EXPERT EVIDENCE
- The economic and valuation experts: preliminary comments
- Assessment of the economic and valuation evidence
- The Decision Tree Model (DTM)
- ISSUES
- FACTUAL BACKGROUND
- The UK toy industry
- Table 1: NPD dolls classifications
- MGA and LOL Surprise
- Section 14
- The founding of Cabo and development of Worldeez
- Section 16
- The initial marketing of Worldeez
- Discussions with the launch retailers
- The Entertainer
- Toys R Us
- Smyths
- Other retailers
- MGA’s intervention
- Contacts with Cabo and Singleton
- The Entertainer
- Toys R Us
- Smyths
- B&M and other retailers
- AB Gee
- Worldeez repackaging and relaunch
- Launch of Worldeez globe in B&M
- Decline in B&M sales after August 2017
- Sales to other retailers
- Licensing and international distribution
- Nickelodeon advertising
- Demise of Cabo
- PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND
- ABUSE OF DOMINANCE CLAIM
- The relevant market definition
- The parties’ submissions
- Mr Colley’s approach
- Mr Parker’s approach
- Section 44
- Conclusions on market definition
- Whether MGA was dominant on the relevant market
- The parties’ submissions
- Table 2: 2017 market shares for Colley and Parker markets (%)
- Table 3: Parker market share estimates for 2018–19 (%)
- Table 4: 2017 market shares for extended Colley market (%)
- Market shares
- Figure 1: Colley diagram of 2017 MGA and competitor market shares
- Competition from products outside the relevant market
- Barriers to entry and expansion
- Countervailing buyer power
- MGA’s conduct
- Conclusions on dominance
- Whether MGA’s conduct amounted to an abuse
- The parties’ submissions
- The overall exclusionary campaign
- MGA’s “response to commercial attack” argument
- MGA’s passing off defence
- Section 63
- Conclusion on abuse of dominance
- UNLAWFUL AGREEMENTS CLAIM
- Agreements with the toy traders
- Discussion and conclusions
- Anticompetitive object or effect
- Discussion and conclusions
- Exemption under the VBER
- Scope of the VBER
- Market share threshold
- Excluded restrictions
- Conclusion on the VBER
- Exemption under s. 9 / Article 101(3)
- Conclusion on the unlawful agreements claim
- PATENT THREATS CLAIM
- Threats of patent infringement proceedings
- The parties’ submissions
- Discussion
- “Person aggrieved”
- Conclusion on the patent threats claim
- CAUSATION AND QUANTUM
- Legal principles
- Quantification of the loss
- The approach to claims for lost profits
- Conclusions on the overarching approach
- Causative effect of MGA’s conduct
- Actionable damage and causation: Cabo’s heads of loss
- Whether Cabo would have traded profitably in the counterfactual case
- Product quality
- Section 92
- Marketing campaign
- Retailer support
- Business plan/financial projections
- Inventory management
- Working capital
- Toy expert evidence on commercial success
- Breakeven analysis
- Table 5: Volumes and working capital required to break even in 2017
- International sales
- Conclusions on whether Cabo would have traded profitably
- The parties’ quantum models
- Mr Colley’s quantum models
- Table 6: Cabo calculations of losses (£m)
- Assessment of Mr Colley’s models
- Mr Parker’s quantum models
- Table 7: MGA calculations of losses (£)
- Assessment of Mr Parker’s significant success model
- Table 8: Loss calculation for significant success model, comparing MGA and Cabo cost stacks (£)
- Assessment of Mr Parker’s moderate success model
- Figure 2: Parker moderate success model: average monthly revenue (£)
- Conclusions on the quantum models
- DECLARATORY RELIEF
- Conclusions
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